Severe Thunderstorms Beginning To Develop

Storms are beginning to fire off across the Southern Ontario region and are already being becoming severe. Several new Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been issued and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are also being issued for some cells. SPC has lowered the hail threat to low but have RAISED the severe wind threat to HIGH. I will be closely watching this as wind damage is now at a raised chance thus posing a threat to life and property.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the following areas: Barrie, Haliburton, Bancroft, Fenelon Falls, Renfrew, Owen Sound, Saugeen Shores, Hanover, Huron, Waterloo and Dufferin. Conditions continue to be favorable for severe weather across Southern Ontario as storms are expected to begin develop in the late afternoon-early evening hours. There is high confidence that some of these storms will be severe. Any storm that does for could produce: Damaging winds gusts to 100km/h, large hail, torrential downpours and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Remember, when thunder roars. Go indoors! Lightning kills an average of 10 Canadians every year! The OPSW will continue to monitor the situation.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the following areas: Algonquin Provincial Park, Burk's Falls and Bruce. Conditions are favorable this afternoon for the development of  severe weather. Storms that do form are capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, torrential downpours and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Environment Canada and the OPSW will continue to watch the development of these storms and provide updates as they come in. Remember, when thunder roars. Go indoors! Lightning kills and average of 10 Canadians a year!

The U.S Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for areas in and around the Windsor, Sarnia area. Storms are expected to begin forming in the afternoon-early evening hours with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds and torrential downpours. Localized flooding is a possibility but not a main threat. We will continue to watch this system closely as storms begin to fire off. Stay tuned.

Heat Warning Continued

A Heat Warning remains in effect for the following counties: Essex, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Middlesex, Elgin, Oxford, Norfolk, Haldimand, Welland, Northumberland, Wellington, Halton, York and Durham.

As a hot and humid airmass continues to affect parts of the region humidex values are forecast to possibly reach 40 on tomorrow. A cold front will then sweep through the area and bring some thunderstorms and return temperatures back to normal levels. It is recommended that the elderly, people with chronic illnesses, people who work in heat, infants and young children, people who exercise in the heat, people with no air conditioning and the homeless limit time outside and if outside for a prolonged period of time stay hydrated.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ESSEX COUNTY

Winter storm watch issued for:

   Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park, Ont. (041410)
   Windsor - Leamington - Essex County, Ont. (041420) 

Current details: 
Significant snow and blowing snow Wednesday.

An intensifying low pressure from Kansas is forecast to track south of the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. Precipitation in the form of rain or wet snow and slight risk of freezing rain are expected over Windsor to Dunnville region. The snow will quickly become heavy at times and continues east into the Kingston to Cornwall region through Wednesday with a total snowfall amounts of 15 cm possible by Wednesdaynight.

In addition, brisk northeasterly winds will also cause low visibilities at times in blowing snow.

Motorists should prepare for hazardous driving conditions on Wednesday.

Special Weather Statement

Special weather statement issued for:

   Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk, Ont. (041100) 
   Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand, Ont. (041200) 
   Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park, Ont. (041410) 
   Windsor - Leamington - Essex County, Ont. (041420) 
   St. Thomas - Aylmer - Eastern Elgin County, Ont. (041610) 
   Rodney - Shedden - Western Elgin County, Ont. (041620) 

Current details:
Snow and blowing snow Wednesday.

An area of low pressure from Kansas is forecast to track south of the Lower Great Lakes. This system is expected to generate snow and local blowing snow for regions just north of Lake Erie and across the Niagara region. Although snowfall accumulations will depend on the exact track of this system current information suggests total snowfall amounts near 10 cm are possible.

Winter Storm Watch

687 
WWUS43 KDTX 101938
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
338 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

...A WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. SO WHILE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS RAIN...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL THEN PERSIST OFF AND ON INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND SIX INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF
THE STORM SYSTEM. IF THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER
NORTH...HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER
HAND...A FARTHER SOUTH STORM TRACK WILL LESSON THE CHANCES FOR SIX
OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

MIZ063-069-070-075-076-082-083-110900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0003.140312T0400Z-140312T2000Z/
ST. CLAIR-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...PONTIAC...WARREN...
ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
338 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL
   CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BE HEAVY AT
   TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING AT RATES OF AN
   INCH PER HOUR. TOTAL SNOWFALL OF AROUND 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
   THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF A DETROIT TO
   ANN ARBOR LINE.

 * WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE DURING
   THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE
   POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
   DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. 

 * TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
   WIND CHILL READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. 

IMPACTS...

 * ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND VERY SLIPPERY.

 * VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR DUE TO BOTH FALLING AND BLOWING
   SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
   SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
   FORECASTS.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

SC/SF

Hydrologic Outlook

000
FGUS73 KDTX 061827
ESFDTX
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-145-155-157-161-163-131200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
120 PM EST THU MARCH 6 2014


...2014 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND INCLUDES THE RIVERS IN THE SAGINAW
RIVER BASIN AND THE CLINTON...ROUGE...HURON AND RIVER RAISIN BASINS.

...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM LATE WINTER THROUGH EARLY SPRING
DUE TO COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...

THE SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN ADDITION
TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST
LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THE DETROIT/PONTIAC OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL
THE MODEL LOCATIONS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED BASINS. AHPS ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET
AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.


THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE CHANCES OF REACHING MINOR...
MODERATE...MAJOR FLOODING AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT 90 DAYS

THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


SAGINAW RIVER DRAINAGE BASIN

TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...                   VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
PINE RIVER
 MIDLAND         12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
TITTABAWASSEE RIVER
 MIDLAND         24.0   25.0   28.0    52   15   41    9    6   <5
SHIAWASSEE RIVER
 OWOSSO           7.0    9.0   10.0   >95   32   63   <5   29   <5
KEARSLEY CREEK
 DAVISON         10.0   11.0   12.0    78   15   23   <5   <5   <5
FLINT RIVER
 FLINT           13.0   15.0   17.0    58    6   20   <5   <5   <5
CASS RIVER
 CASS CITY       14.0   18.0   20.0    46   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 VASSAR          14.0   15.0   18.0    72    9   53   <5   21   <5
 FRANKENMUTH     17.0   20.0   25.0    92   20   58   <5    6   <5
SAGINAW RIVER
 SAGINAW         17.0   19.0   24.0    93   38   70   15   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RIVERS

PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
CLINTON RIVER
 CLINTON TWP     16.0   17.0   19.0    64   16   35   <5   15   <5
 MT CLEMENS      16.0   17.0   18.0    33   <5   18   <5   13   <5
NORTH BRANCH CLINTON RIVER
 MT CLEMENS      15.0   16.0   20.0    67   16   55    9   10   <5
ROUGE RIVER
 DETROIT         15.0   18.0   20.0    78   23   30   <5   12   <5
MIDDLE ROUGE RIVER
 DEARBORN HTS    10.0   11.0   12.0    63   <5   20   <5   <5   <5
LOWER ROUGE RIVER
 INKSTER         10.0   12.0   14.0    78   29   27   <5   <5   <5
MILL CREEK
 DEXTER          12.0   13.0   14.0    72   <5   53   <5   41   <5
HURON RIVER
 HAMBURG          6.5    7.0    7.5   >95   38   90   30   56   21
 ANN ARBOR       16.0   17.0   18.0    67    6   35   <5   12   <5
RIVER RAISIN
 TECUMSEH        13.0   14.0   15.0    29   <5    9   <5   <5   <5
 ADRIAN          18.0   19.0   20.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 BLISSFIELD     683.0  685.0  687.0    86   16   52    6   30   <5
 DUNDEE         650.0  652.0  653.0    84   13   60   <5   49   <5
 MONROE           9.0   10.0   11.0    93   13   47   <5    6   <5


LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET



...PAST PRECIPITATION...
THIS PAST FALL AND WINTER WAS ABOVE AVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
FALL.


...RIVER CONDITIONS...

CURRENT RIVER LEVELS ARE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.  RIVERS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...
SOIL MOISTURE WAS AVERAGE GOING INTO THE FALL AND HAS REMAINED THAT
WAY SINCE AN EARLY FROST DEPTH WAS ESTABLISHED IN THE BEGINNING OF
THE WINTER SEASON AND NO APPRECIATIVE THAWS HAVE OCCURRED.  FROST
DEPTHS CONTINUE TO  RANGE GENERALLY FROM TWO TO FOUR FEET.


...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
SNOW COVER RANGES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 20 INCHES WITH A MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES.  WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK IS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.


...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
INDICATIONS ARE FOR TEMPERATURES OVER ALL TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
MARCH AND APRIL WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE BELOW, AVERAGE
OR ABOVE.

THE FURTHER INTO SPRING THE SNOW PACK AND HIGH WATER CONTENT REMAIN...
THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR A QUICKER MORE SIGNIFICANT THAW. WITH THE MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW PACK AND WATER CONTENT ALONG WITH MUCH DEEPER THEN
AVERAGE FROST DEPTH...ALL RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING.  THE RIVER BASINS
THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST CONTENT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOW PACK AND THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ARE THE CASS...
SHIAWASSEE...SAGINAW...CLINTON...HURON AND RAISIN.


THE OTHER THREAT THAT IS ALSO HIGH IS FOR ICE JAMS.  ALL THE RIVERS
ARE MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE ICE IS UNUSUALLY THICK.  BREAK UP OF
RIVER ICE...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RAPID RISE AND INCREASE FLOW IN A
RIVER CAN LEAD TO SERIOUS ICE JAMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE JAM OR DOWNSTREAM IF AN ICE JAM
GIVES WAY ABRUPTLY.  ONE CAN TELL IF AN ICE JAM IS NEARBY IF THEY
OBSERVE UNUSUAL RAPID RISE OR FALL IN A RIVER.  A RAPID FALL WOULD
INDICATE A JAM UPSTREAM AND RAPID RISE A JAM DOWNSTREAM OR VICE
VERSA IF A JAM GIVES AWAY.


ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTW/(INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL LOWER
CASE).


THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR 2014.  ADDITIONAL
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE EVENT DRIVEN.

$$

DRC

Wind Chill Warning For Essex County

Windsor - Leamington - Essex County
10:57 AM EST Thursday 27 February 2014
Wind chill warning for 
Windsor - Leamington - Essex County issued

Wind chill values reaching close to minus 30 in many areas this afternoon and minus 30 to minus 35 tonight.

Strong and gusty northwesterly winds are blasting in even colder Arctic air in the wake of the snow squall producing sharp cold front today. As a result wind chill values near minus 30 are expected at times in many areas this afternoon. Wind chills of minus 30 to minus 35 are expected tonight across most of Southern Ontario as the bitterly cold Arctic air mass continues to invade from the northwest.


Anyone venturing outdoors, especially for an extended period, should dress accordingly with as little exposed skin as possible.

Wind chills will improve Friday morning as temperatures struggle upward a few degrees under the strengthening late February sun.

Wind Advisory

498 
WWUS73 KDTX 201926
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
226 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WISCONSIN AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 50 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-210600-
/O.UPG.KDTX.HW.A.0001.140221T0400Z-140221T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WI.Y.0001.140221T0500Z-140222T0000Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
226 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
   THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH DURING THIS TIME.

IMPACTS...

 * THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE CAPABLE PRODUCING MINOR DAMAGE
   TO TREES AND OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

 * SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

 * DRIVING WILL BE MADE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
   VEHICLES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GUSTS
   OF 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
   DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA
   CAUTION.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

Thunderstorm Risk For Essex County, Chatham-Kent And Lambton County

SPC has put the counties listed in the title in a 70% chance of  thunderstorms. There is a possibility of isolated severe thunderstorms.

Storm Prediction Centre Day 3 Outlook Update

It has been confirmed by DTX that Lenawee and Monroe county are in the SLIGHT risk. They say hail will be the main threat. Hail combined with such high winds (45+ MPH) will cause a harder impact so stay safe Thursday!

Special Weather Statement For All Of Ontario

Significant weather expected late Thursday and Friday.

Two weather systems, one from Alberta and the other from Texas, are expected to develop in the coming days and track toward the Great Lakes, where they are forecast to merge and rapidly intensify on Thursday.

This intense system will bring rising temperatures to Southern Ontario, but also significant precipitation and strong winds.

Rain is expected to reach Southwestern Ontario on Thursday afternoon, then spread eastward to the Golden Horseshoe by evening. As the precipitation spreads further north and eastward through the overnight hours, it will encounter colder air and likely begin as snowfall before changing to rain. Some freezing rain and ice pellets will also be possible as the snow transitions to rain.

While considerable uncertainty still exists regarding the details of Thursday and Friday's weather, current indicators suggest the following:

From Southwestern Ontario to the Golden Horseshoe and eastward along the Lake Ontario shore toward Kingston, rainfall amounts could be in the 30 to 40 mm range, with much of the precipitation falling Thursday night through Friday morning. Thunderstorms are also a possibility in these areas, and may result in locally higher rainfall amounts. Significant snow melt due to the rising temperatures will also be a concern.

For regions north of a line from about Kincardine eastward to Ottawa, snowfall ranging anywhere between a trace to 10 cm on Thursday night may be followed by 10 to 20 mm of rain. A few hours of freezing rain and ice pellets is also possible, but is most likely to occur in Eastern Ontario, especially near the Ottawa Valley.

Strong winds will also be a concern in some areas, especially regions along the Great Lakes shores. Southerly winds in the 30 to 60 km/h range will veer to southwesterly on Friday and increase, with gusts 70 or 80 km/h possible.

Meteorologists continue to monitor the development of these weather systems. Weather watches or warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

SPC Day 3 Slight Risk

SPC AC 180829

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ROUGHLY THE MS VALLEY
   REGION EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
   LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME...WITH THE ENTIRE U.S. UNDER THE
   INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS
   EXPANSION OF LONG-WAVE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INTERACTION
   OF TWO SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS -- ONE ADVANCING EWD AND THEN NEWD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A SECOND DIGS SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA
   INTO THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE
   INITIAL/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH -- A VERY INTENSE FEATURE PROGGED TO
   TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE MID AND UPPER MS/OH
   VALLEYS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD -- WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   FEATURE OF INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.

   AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES/STRENGTHENS...A SURFACE LOW -- PROGGED
   INITIALLY TO LIE INVOF THE KS/MO BORDER AREA -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
   RAPIDLY NNEWD AND DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH TIME...REACHING THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SUB-980 MB CYCLONE BY MIDNIGHT. 
   MEANWHILE...A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY
   LK MI SSWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN
   GULF COASTAL REGION BY SUNSET.  THE FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE RACING
   EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
   REGION OVERNIGHT...AND IS PROGGED TO LIE IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
   BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT
   SHOULD DRIVE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING
   THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- MAINLY IN THE
   FORM OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS -- TO AN AREA FROM ROUGHLY
   THE MS VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS.

   ...IL/ERN MO/ERN AR/LA EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
   CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/MO AND EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...WITHIN A ZONE
   OF WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW.  BY MID
   AFTERNOON...SURFACE COLD-FRONTAL ADVANCE INTO A
   MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHOULD YIELD CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE ZONE OF STRONG/LINEAR LOW-LEVEL ASCENT...WITH
   STORMS THEN EXPANDING BOTH NE AND SW ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY. 
   GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM
   DRIVING FAST LINE MOTION...RISK FOR NUMEROUS DAMAGING GUSTS IS
   APPARENT.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
   LINE...WHILE ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR -- MAINLY NEAR
   AND S OF THE OH VALLEY WHERE A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
   EXPECTED.

   OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS
   AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WITH ACCOMPANYING SEVERE RISK
   EXTENDING EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND SERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END
   OF THE PERIOD.

   ..GOSS.. 02/18/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1628Z (11:28AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Winter Storm Warning

298 
WWUS43 KDTX 180003
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
703 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR TRI CITIES
AND NORTHERN THUMB...

.THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB ARE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WINDSOR TONIGHT. HEAVY
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PEAK AROUND 10 PM...AND
THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE REPORTED FROM THE
SAGINAW AREA BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH SOME LOWER VARIATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA AND 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE
THE SYSTEM EXITS TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.


MIZ047>049-053-054-180815-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-140218T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0002.140218T0003Z-140218T0900Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO
703 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4
AM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE TRI CITIES BETWEEN 7 PM AND
   MIDNIGHT WHILE INCREASING INTENSITY OVER TUSCOLA AND HURON
   COUNTIES. 

 * SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED
   BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

 * SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

 * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES. 

IMPACTS...

 * UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

 * VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT 
   TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
   ACTIVITY DANGEROUS. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT

Mesoscale Discussion

238 
ACUS11 KWNS 172157
SWOMCD
 SPC MCD 172157 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-180300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CST MON FEB 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND
NORTHERN OH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 172157Z - 180300Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI TO
NORTHWEST OH. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1+ IN/HR WILL OCCUR WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSNOW...PRIMARILY IN THE SHORT-TERM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI.

DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-UPPER JET STREAK
CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AT MID-AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH ASSOCIATED UVV TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF INDIANA/SOUTHERN
HALF OF LOWER MI AND OH. ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING A TREND TOWARD
COLDER CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE VORT
MAX/DRY SLOT...AMPLE UVV COINCIDENT WITH A SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTI-HOUR DURATIONS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW WITH 1+ IN/HR RATES POSSIBLE. 

THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE GIVEN SOME CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
HEAVIER BOUTS OF SNOW...WITH LIGHTNING/REPORTED THUNDERSNOW EVIDENT
SINCE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL INTO FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA AS OF 21Z. A 18Z SPECIAL OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM LINCOLN IL
SAMPLED APPROXIMATELY 370 J/KG OF MUCAPE COINCIDENT WITH A PLUME OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8+ DEG C PER KM 700-500 MB/.
THUNDERSNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
/MID TO PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON/ ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/FAR
SOUTHWEST MI...BUT THE OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE...ALTHOUGH
THE PROXIMITY OF WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SNOW
RATES INTO THIS EVENING REGARDLESS OF DEEP ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

..GUYER.. 02/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   41078300 39918553 40868656 41578791 43058746 43418688
            44138560 44188316 43148239 41948233 41078300 

Weather Discussion

You may hear a rumble of thunder or two this evening  as well as see some snow pellets. NWS says that this among other problems will arise in the future. Locally 7 inches of snowfall may accumulate in the Tri-City area.  River flooding and areal flooding may occur Thursday due to a low pressure system out of Texas. This system will bring moisture from the Gulf to the Great Lakes and cause problomatic snow melt to occur. There may be significant ponding water in low lying areas or areas with poor drainage systems. Up to 1" of rainfall may also occur worsening the problem. Dense fog may also occur with the all the moisture in the air Thursday.

*SPOTTER STATUS*

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT BUT SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS ARE REQUESTED.

Snow To Increase In Intensity Over The Region Later This Afternoon

 
960 
WWUS83 KDTX 172131
SPSDTX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
431 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

MIZ047-048-053-060-061-068-069-075-076-082-083-180015-
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW...OWOSSO...
FLINT...HOWELL...PONTIAC...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
431 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...SNOW TO INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...

WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
   REGION BETWEEN 430 PM AND 7 PM.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS
   IMPACTED BY 7 PM...THEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. 

 * EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH MAY PRODUCE MINOR
   BLOWING SNOW.

 * AIR TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES. 

IMPACTS...

 * VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH RAPID FLUCTUATIONS
   LIKELY AS THE PATTERN INTENSIFIES. 

 * ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LEAD TO SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
   ROADS PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES...RAMPS...AND OVERPASSES.

 * POOR ROAD CONDITIONS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL HAMPER THE EVENING
   COMMUTE. 

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

 * MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION AND ACCOUNT FOR THE VARIABLE
   DRIVING CONDITIONS BY SLOWING DOWN AND ALLOWING EXTRA TIME.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT


$$

BT

Special Weather Statement

Alert Statement:

A total snowfall amounts of up to 10 centimetres possible by Tuesday morning.

A disturbance approaching from the Northern Plains States will spread snow into Southwestern Ontario beginning late this afternoon and will March east into the Golden Horseshoe regions late this evening. Latest indications suggest most regions could receive 5 to 10 cm of snow from this disturbance. In addition, strong gusty winds are also expected to produce local blowing snow. Travellers should allow extra time due to accumulating snow and reduced visibility in falling and blowing snow.

The snow will taper off from west to east Tuesday morning.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

Latest information is always available here: http://www.weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html
Latest Alert Version: Winter Weather
Mobile Version: Winter Weather

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
329 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING...

.A WINTER SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES
OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES. TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY IMPACT THE
EVENING COMMUTE.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-172100-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.140217T2100Z-140218T0900Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
329 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MODERATE SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

 * A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT.  

 * SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. 

IMPACTS...

 * THE ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE.

 * UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

 * VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT
   TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
   TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
   VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

MR

Storms On The Way

For all of you sun lovers I got good news and bad news. The good news is temps will go up into the 40s. BUT, with that it will bring storms. SPC has now issued a Day 4 outlook for parts of the Ohio Valley. They say damaging winds may be a primary problem. This risk is about 30% so maybe a slight risk will cover this.

Family Day Winter Storm

An Alberta Clipper System will make its way through The Great Lakes tomorrow. 4-6" of snow is expected to fall in some areas. The NWS in Detroit is calling for a "High End Advisory Event" meaning that it is just on the edge of a Winter Storm Warning. BUT, they also say this system could "Overpreform" and have snowfall amounts of about 1" an hour in some places. Thus a "Winter Storm Warning" would be issued. Environment Canada has not yet issued a "Special Weather Statement" so I am assuming a "Snowfall Warning" may be issued later tomorrow if not tonight. Please continue to moniter this as the OPSW will have shortened hours tomorrow due to Family Day.

The latest weather information from the NWS in Detroit can be found here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/ 

The latest weather information for Southern Ontario and Northern Ontario can be found here:
 Southern Ontario: http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=son 
 Northern Ontario: http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=non