WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ESSEX COUNTY

Winter storm watch issued for:

   Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park, Ont. (041410)
   Windsor - Leamington - Essex County, Ont. (041420) 

Current details: 
Significant snow and blowing snow Wednesday.

An intensifying low pressure from Kansas is forecast to track south of the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. Precipitation in the form of rain or wet snow and slight risk of freezing rain are expected over Windsor to Dunnville region. The snow will quickly become heavy at times and continues east into the Kingston to Cornwall region through Wednesday with a total snowfall amounts of 15 cm possible by Wednesdaynight.

In addition, brisk northeasterly winds will also cause low visibilities at times in blowing snow.

Motorists should prepare for hazardous driving conditions on Wednesday.

Special Weather Statement

Special weather statement issued for:

   Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk, Ont. (041100) 
   Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand, Ont. (041200) 
   Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park, Ont. (041410) 
   Windsor - Leamington - Essex County, Ont. (041420) 
   St. Thomas - Aylmer - Eastern Elgin County, Ont. (041610) 
   Rodney - Shedden - Western Elgin County, Ont. (041620) 

Current details:
Snow and blowing snow Wednesday.

An area of low pressure from Kansas is forecast to track south of the Lower Great Lakes. This system is expected to generate snow and local blowing snow for regions just north of Lake Erie and across the Niagara region. Although snowfall accumulations will depend on the exact track of this system current information suggests total snowfall amounts near 10 cm are possible.

Winter Storm Watch

687 
WWUS43 KDTX 101938
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
338 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

...A WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN UNDER INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. SO WHILE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS RAIN...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL THEN PERSIST OFF AND ON INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND SIX INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF
THE STORM SYSTEM. IF THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER
NORTH...HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER
HAND...A FARTHER SOUTH STORM TRACK WILL LESSON THE CHANCES FOR SIX
OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

MIZ063-069-070-075-076-082-083-110900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0003.140312T0400Z-140312T2000Z/
ST. CLAIR-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT HURON...PONTIAC...WARREN...
ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
338 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL
   CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BE HEAVY AT
   TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING AT RATES OF AN
   INCH PER HOUR. TOTAL SNOWFALL OF AROUND 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
   THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF A DETROIT TO
   ANN ARBOR LINE.

 * WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE DURING
   THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE
   POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
   DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. 

 * TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
   WIND CHILL READINGS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. 

IMPACTS...

 * ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND VERY SLIPPERY.

 * VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR DUE TO BOTH FALLING AND BLOWING
   SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
   SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
   FORECASTS.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

SC/SF

Hydrologic Outlook

000
FGUS73 KDTX 061827
ESFDTX
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-145-155-157-161-163-131200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
120 PM EST THU MARCH 6 2014


...2014 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS FOR THE RIVERS IN
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND INCLUDES THE RIVERS IN THE SAGINAW
RIVER BASIN AND THE CLINTON...ROUGE...HURON AND RIVER RAISIN BASINS.

...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM LATE WINTER THROUGH EARLY SPRING
DUE TO COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...

THE SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN ADDITION
TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST
LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THE DETROIT/PONTIAC OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL
THE MODEL LOCATIONS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED BASINS. AHPS ENABLES
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET
AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.


THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE CHANCES OF REACHING MINOR...
MODERATE...MAJOR FLOODING AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL OVER THE
NEXT 90 DAYS

THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


SAGINAW RIVER DRAINAGE BASIN

TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...                   VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
PINE RIVER
 MIDLAND         12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
TITTABAWASSEE RIVER
 MIDLAND         24.0   25.0   28.0    52   15   41    9    6   <5
SHIAWASSEE RIVER
 OWOSSO           7.0    9.0   10.0   >95   32   63   <5   29   <5
KEARSLEY CREEK
 DAVISON         10.0   11.0   12.0    78   15   23   <5   <5   <5
FLINT RIVER
 FLINT           13.0   15.0   17.0    58    6   20   <5   <5   <5
CASS RIVER
 CASS CITY       14.0   18.0   20.0    46   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 VASSAR          14.0   15.0   18.0    72    9   53   <5   21   <5
 FRANKENMUTH     17.0   20.0   25.0    92   20   58   <5    6   <5
SAGINAW RIVER
 SAGINAW         17.0   19.0   24.0    93   38   70   15   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RIVERS

PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
CLINTON RIVER
 CLINTON TWP     16.0   17.0   19.0    64   16   35   <5   15   <5
 MT CLEMENS      16.0   17.0   18.0    33   <5   18   <5   13   <5
NORTH BRANCH CLINTON RIVER
 MT CLEMENS      15.0   16.0   20.0    67   16   55    9   10   <5
ROUGE RIVER
 DETROIT         15.0   18.0   20.0    78   23   30   <5   12   <5
MIDDLE ROUGE RIVER
 DEARBORN HTS    10.0   11.0   12.0    63   <5   20   <5   <5   <5
LOWER ROUGE RIVER
 INKSTER         10.0   12.0   14.0    78   29   27   <5   <5   <5
MILL CREEK
 DEXTER          12.0   13.0   14.0    72   <5   53   <5   41   <5
HURON RIVER
 HAMBURG          6.5    7.0    7.5   >95   38   90   30   56   21
 ANN ARBOR       16.0   17.0   18.0    67    6   35   <5   12   <5
RIVER RAISIN
 TECUMSEH        13.0   14.0   15.0    29   <5    9   <5   <5   <5
 ADRIAN          18.0   19.0   20.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
 BLISSFIELD     683.0  685.0  687.0    86   16   52    6   30   <5
 DUNDEE         650.0  652.0  653.0    84   13   60   <5   49   <5
 MONROE           9.0   10.0   11.0    93   13   47   <5    6   <5


LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET



...PAST PRECIPITATION...
THIS PAST FALL AND WINTER WAS ABOVE AVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
FALL.


...RIVER CONDITIONS...

CURRENT RIVER LEVELS ARE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.  RIVERS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...
SOIL MOISTURE WAS AVERAGE GOING INTO THE FALL AND HAS REMAINED THAT
WAY SINCE AN EARLY FROST DEPTH WAS ESTABLISHED IN THE BEGINNING OF
THE WINTER SEASON AND NO APPRECIATIVE THAWS HAVE OCCURRED.  FROST
DEPTHS CONTINUE TO  RANGE GENERALLY FROM TWO TO FOUR FEET.


...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
SNOW COVER RANGES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 20 INCHES WITH A MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES.  WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK IS
MOSTLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.


...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
INDICATIONS ARE FOR TEMPERATURES OVER ALL TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
MARCH AND APRIL WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE BELOW, AVERAGE
OR ABOVE.

THE FURTHER INTO SPRING THE SNOW PACK AND HIGH WATER CONTENT REMAIN...
THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR A QUICKER MORE SIGNIFICANT THAW. WITH THE MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW PACK AND WATER CONTENT ALONG WITH MUCH DEEPER THEN
AVERAGE FROST DEPTH...ALL RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING.  THE RIVER BASINS
THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST CONTENT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOW PACK AND THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ARE THE CASS...
SHIAWASSEE...SAGINAW...CLINTON...HURON AND RAISIN.


THE OTHER THREAT THAT IS ALSO HIGH IS FOR ICE JAMS.  ALL THE RIVERS
ARE MOSTLY ICE COVERED AND THE ICE IS UNUSUALLY THICK.  BREAK UP OF
RIVER ICE...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RAPID RISE AND INCREASE FLOW IN A
RIVER CAN LEAD TO SERIOUS ICE JAMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE JAM OR DOWNSTREAM IF AN ICE JAM
GIVES WAY ABRUPTLY.  ONE CAN TELL IF AN ICE JAM IS NEARBY IF THEY
OBSERVE UNUSUAL RAPID RISE OR FALL IN A RIVER.  A RAPID FALL WOULD
INDICATE A JAM UPSTREAM AND RAPID RISE A JAM DOWNSTREAM OR VICE
VERSA IF A JAM GIVES AWAY.


ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTW/(INTERNET ADDRESSES ARE ALL LOWER
CASE).


THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR 2014.  ADDITIONAL
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE EVENT DRIVEN.

$$

DRC